Track Record Auditor — luck or skill?
Every betting record looks impressive until you do the math
A bettor who loses money with mathematical certainty (−5% expected value) still shows a profitable record 39% of the time after 30 bets. That's why screenshots of winning streaks are worthless — and why this agent exists.
Feed Track Record Auditor any betting history — CSV, pasted list, summary numbers ("120 bets, 55 wins, avg odds 2.05"), even a described screenshot — and get a complete retrospective audit:
- Flat-stake ROI with a 95% confidence interval — a ROI without its interval is a marketing number, not a statistic
- The luck mirror: the probability that a long-run losing bettor would show a record at least this good
- Variance reality check: expected losing streaks and max drawdown for this winrate, vs what the record shows
- Risk of ruin by stake size (1%, 2%, 5%, 10% of bankroll)
- Curation signals: zero-loss records, implausible edges, too-smooth equity curves, window-picking — the statistical fingerprints of a filtered record
- A sober verdict in tiers: "compatible with chance" → "starting to say something" → "500+ bets, hard to attribute to chance alone"
What this agent will never do
Predictions, picks, betting tips, or "chances of winning" for future events. It audits the past; it refuses to predict the future — explicitly and by design. It qualifies records, never people.
Who's behind it
Built by Precix, the French statistical analysis service that publishes its own losses — including a −6.8% ROI on football over 567 settled bets (see for yourself). The formulas in this agent are the exact ones running in production on our public track record.
Use cases
- Audit a tipster's advertised results before paying for a subscription
- Audit your own betting history before believing you've found an edge
- Understand why small samples prove nothing — with your own numbers
Analysis and education only. 18+. Gambling involves risk.
