Prediction Market Brief - Polymarket & Kalshi
Prediction Market Brief
Paste a market link. Get the research, not a tip.
Most money lost on prediction markets isn't lost to bad forecasting. It's lost to bad reading — the trader was right about the world and wrong about the contract. The deadline was ET. The resolution source was one specific agency release. "Appointed" didn't mean "took office."
This agent does the work people skip.
What you get
Paste a Polymarket URL, a Kalshi ticker, or just ask a question, and you get a structured brief:
| Section | What it gives you |
|---|---|
| Market snapshot | Live price, implied probability, 24h volume, liquidity, close date — pulled from the public API, not from memory |
| What this actually resolves on | The rules in plain English: which event, verified by which source, by what deadline, in what timezone — and what does not count |
| Resolution risk flag | Checked against 10 recurring traps that cost traders money |
| Base rate | The historical reference class and how often this kind of thing actually happens |
| YES case / NO case | Dated evidence from primary sources |
| Catalyst calendar | What moves this price between now and expiry |
| Calibrated estimate | An independent probability, compared against the market, with the structural reason for any disagreement |
| What would change my mind | Concrete, observable signals to watch |
Example
Input:
https://polymarket.com/event/[any-active-market]
Output (abridged):
Will [Event] happen before [Date]?
Market: Polymarket · YES: 34¢ (34% implied) · 24h volume: $412,000 · Liquidity: $88,000 · Closes: Dec 31
Bottom line. The market looks roughly fairly priced at 34%, but the title and the rules diverge in a way most holders haven't priced. The contract resolves on a formal announcement, not on the event itself — an outcome that is widely expected but announced after the deadline resolves NO.
⚠️ Resolution risk. The deadline is 11:59 PM ET. The named source of truth is a single official release. If that release slips past the window, YES loses even if the underlying event occurs.
Base rate. Comparable processes have concluded within the equivalent window in 4 of the last 11 instances (36%) — close to where the market is trading, which is why the price is defensible.
Estimate: 31% vs market 34% · Confidence: medium. Within the noise band. I don't see a tradeable edge here; the value in this market is understanding the announcement-vs-event gap before you size anything.
Illustrative structure. Every brief is generated live against the current market.
Who this is for
- Active traders who want the resolution rules decoded before committing capital
- Anyone comparing venues — the same headline question on Polymarket and Kalshi often has different arbiters and deadlines, and an apparent price gap is usually a rules gap
- Researchers and journalists using market prices as a forecasting signal and needing to know what the price actually measures
- New traders who keep getting surprised by how a market resolved
What it won't do
It won't tell you it found a guaranteed edge. When the market is priced correctly, it says so — which is the honest answer most of the time, and the reason these briefs are worth reading.
It won't size your position, recommend a stake, or promise a return.
If it disagrees with the market, it names the structural reason: a resolution technicality the crowd is misreading, stale pricing after news, thin liquidity, a cross-venue divergence, or a known pricing bias. "I feel differently" is not a reason, and the agent is built to say so.
FAQ
Do I need an API key or a wallet?
No. It reads public market data — no key, no wallet, no account connection.
Does it place trades?
No. It reads and analyses. Nothing touches your funds.
Which venues?
Live data for Polymarket. Kalshi, Manifold and Limitless are covered in the analysis, including cross-venue price and rule comparisons.
How current is the data?
Prices and liquidity are fetched at the moment you run it. News and evidence are researched live and every material claim is dated.
Can I use it on a market that just opened?
Yes, though thin markets get an explicit liquidity warning — a good-looking price you can't actually trade is not an opportunity.
Disclaimer
Research and educational content only. Not financial, investment, or betting advice. Prediction markets carry the risk of total loss of the amount committed. Availability is restricted in many jurisdictions — check the rules that apply to you before trading. No outcome is guaranteed and no representation is made about future performance.
External APIs
gamma-api.polymarket.com · Web search
