⚠ [ Roster analysis only — no betting, odds or wagering advice. ] ⚠

Every fantasy tool projects every player with the same confident precision. Most of that precision is noise. Sunday Edge is built the other way round: it separates the calls where it has a measurable edge from the ones that are genuinely a coin flip, and it tells you which is which.

What you get, every week

One page. Read it in two minutes on your phone.

• The biggest call of the week, stated in the first line, before any context
• Every start/sit as an explicit pair — who starts, who sits, the one decisive reason, and the scoring rule from your league that drove it
• A confidence band on every call, measured rather than asserted
• Injury flags with a named replacement and a decision deadline
• Up to four waiver targets, ranked by the hole they fill on your roster, with a FAAB band and a drop candidate
• A trade read only when your roster has a real imbalance — and silence when it doesn't
• Last week's scorecard: how many calls landed, and the one that missed, named

The measured numbers

Sunday Edge was backtested across the 2023, 2024 and 2025 regular seasons before it was listed here. The 2025 season was used to calibrate. 2023 and 2024 the model had never seen.

The test only counts decisions that are genuinely hard: pairs of players at the same position whose season averages are within 3 points. The benchmark is what a manager actually does — start whoever has the better season average.

When Sunday Edge says "Call it"

Roughly one call per manager per week clears this bar. In weeks 1 to 5, when you know least about the season, the gap is wider still: 69.3 % and 70.4 % against 60.7 % and 61.5 %.

When Sunday Edge says "Coin flip"

Measured accuracy: 50.9 % to 51.9 %. That is slightly worse than just starting your season-average guy.

So that is exactly what we tell you to do. One line, no invented reason, and you get your evening back. No other tool will admit this.

What we will not claim

Averaged across every close call, the edge is 1.4 to 2.9 percentage points. Simulated across 81,600 full weekly matchups, a Sunday Edge user beats a season-average user 50.9 % of the time.

Sunday Edge will not win you your league. Nothing will. Your season is decided by who you drafted, not by who you started. What this changes is how you spend your Thursday.

Your league, not the average league

Every verdict names the scoring rule behind it. That matters more than rankings admit.

Measured on the 2025 season: there were 511 same-week RB/WR pairs where full PPR and standard scoring produce the opposite start/sit verdict, with a clear margin on both sides. Week 1, Jakobi Meyers vs Tre Tucker: standard says start Tucker, full PPR says start Meyers. Same week, same players, opposite answer.

Effect sizes we measured, so you know what actually moves and what doesn't:

How it works

First run — under two minutes.

1. Paste your roster however it comes out of your app. Any order, any format, typos included. We parse it. You will never be sent back to reformat anything.
2. Answer three questions: receptions 1, 0.5 or none; passing TDs 4 or 6; superflex or TE premium in play. Not sure? Say so, we apply the common default and flag it in the sheet.

Every week after — one word.

Type go. Your roster, your scoring rules and your decision history are already held. Paste your opponent's starters if you have them and the flex calls get sharper. If you don't, we work without them.

Works with Sleeper, ESPN, Yahoo or any other platform, because it reads your roster, not your login.

Where the data comes from

nflverse, the open NFL dataset, under CC-BY 4.0. Team and player usage, snap and target volume, depth of effective role, injury reports, schedule and market-implied team totals.

No proprietary feed, no insider source, and we are not going to pretend otherwise. The edge comes from how the data is modelled — projecting opportunity rather than points, adjusting for the opposing defense and the game's implied scoring environment, and regressing each player's efficiency toward his position by sample size.

If the data is unavailable or stale, Sunday Edge says so and gives you the deterministic scoring analysis only. It does not guess and then sound confident about it.

Who this is for

Managers in money leagues who want an honest read rather than a confident one, and who are tired of losing twenty minutes a week to decisions that were never decidable.

Who this is not for

Anyone looking for DFS optimisation, betting angles, guaranteed outcomes, or a tool that claims it will win their league.

FAQ

Why not just ask ChatGPT or Claude?
Because you would retype fifteen players, your scoring settings and your opponent every single Thursday, and it would start from zero every time. Sunday Edge holds your league for the season, resolves the roster as one unit instead of answering fifteen separate questions, and names the rule that decided each call so you can check the reasoning.

Do you give betting advice?
No. Not odds, not spreads, not picks, not expected value, not stake sizing. Any betting-framed request is declined in full. Roster decisions only.

How often is it wrong?
On high-conviction calls, roughly one time in three. On coin flips, about half the time, which is why we label them as coin flips instead of dressing them up.

Does it work in weeks 1 to 5?
Yes, and better than mid-season. Prior-season usage bootstraps the model for players with no games yet, and it is retired from week 6 once current-season data is sufficient.

Can I see whether it actually helped me?
Yes. Every sheet opens with last week's scorecard, including the calls that missed. Tell us your final score and the record stays honest.

Data: nflverse, CC-BY 4.0. Analysis only. Not affiliated with the NFL or any fantasy platform. AI-generated output — verify injury status before kickoff. Outcomes are not guaranteed.