Market Regime Radar — Sector Rotation, Breadth & Leadership

Market Regime Radar is an evidence-based AI Agent Skill for understanding the
structure of the US equity market.

It helps users answer questions such as:

• Where is sector leadership moving?
• Is the market broadening or narrowing?
• Is leadership concentrated in a small number of sectors?
• Are defensive or cyclical groups strengthening?
• Is volatility calm, elevated or stressed?
• Are small caps confirming large-cap strength?
• Is growth strengthening relative to value?
• What changed versus one month ago?

The Agent combines public/free market evidence, transparent internal metrics,
strict data-quality rules and a modern fintech Market Regime Dashboard.

Research only. The Agent does not provide buy/sell calls, sector or ETF
picks, portfolio allocations, entries, exits, leverage, position sizing or
guaranteed outcomes.

What the Skill does

1. Market Regime Classification

Possible descriptive regimes include:

• Broad Risk-On
• Narrow Risk-On
• Defensive Rotation
• Cyclical Expansion
• Mixed / Transitional
• Risk-Off
• Volatility Stress
• Recovery / Re-Expansion

Every label must be supported by component evidence and uncertainty.

2. Sector Rotation

Tracks the 11 major US sector ETF proxies:

• XLB — Materials
• XLC — Communication Services
• XLE — Energy
• XLF — Financials
• XLI — Industrials
• XLK — Technology
• XLP — Consumer Staples
• XLRE — Real Estate
• XLU — Utilities
• XLV — Healthcare
• XLY — Consumer Discretionary

Each sector is classified by:

• relative strength;
• momentum change;
• Leading / Improving / Weakening / Lagging quadrant;
• 1W / 1M / 3M benchmark-relative excess return.

3. Breadth with honest coverage modes

The Skill never pretends that ETF proxies are constituent breadth.

It uses:

• Constituent Breadth only when actual constituent-level price histories are
  available;
• Proxy Breadth when using transparent signals such as sector participation,
  equal-weight vs cap-weight, small-cap vs large-cap and core proxy trend;
• Unavailable when neither is defensible.

It never shows % stocks above MA20/50/200 without constituent-level data.

4. Leadership Concentration

Measures how concentrated positive sector leadership is.

Outputs can include:

• normalized concentration score;
• Low / Medium / High label;
• top-three leadership share;
• top contributing leaders.

This is an internal transparent metric, not an official external index.

5. Defensive vs Cyclical Balance

Compares:

Defensive group

• XLU
• XLV
• XLP

Cyclical / risk-sensitive group

• XLY
• XLI
• XLF
• XLB

Outputs:

• Defensive score
• Cyclical score
• spread
• descriptive tilt: Defensive / Balanced / Cyclical

No allocation recommendation is provided.

6. Volatility Regime

Preferred source:

• public Cboe VIX history when accessible.

Fallback:

• VIX from another accessible public market source;
• SPY realized volatility, explicitly labelled as fallback.

Possible labels:

• Calm
• Normal
• Elevated
• Stress

7. Market Participation

Measures how many sectors/proxies participate in the prevailing move.

This is intentionally separate from constituent breadth.

8. Capitalization & Style Leadership

Context includes:

• Small vs Large — IWM / SPY
• Mid vs Large — MDY / SPY
• Growth vs Value — IWF / IWD
• Risk Appetite — transparent composite using available ratios such as
  SPHB/SPLV, IWM/SPY and XLY/XLP

9. Regime Change

The Agent can compare the current market structure with a prior period, for
example one month earlier.

It highlights meaningful changes such as:

• sectors moving between rotation quadrants;
• participation improving or deteriorating;
• concentration rising or falling;
• volatility regime changes;
• small-cap context changes.

Modern Fintech Dashboard

The Skill includes a local HTML Market Regime Dashboard designed for fast,
high-signal reading.

Dashboard layout

1. Regime header
2. KPI strip
   • Regime Context
   • Breadth
   • Leadership Concentration
   • Volatility Regime
   • Market Participation
   • Data Confidence
3. Sector Rotation Matrix
4. Sector Relative Strength Bars
5. Breadth / Proxy Breadth Trend
6. Defensive vs Cyclical Balance
7. Capitalization & Style Leadership
8. Multi-Horizon Sector Heatmap
9. Why This Label?
10. Data Status
11. Key Shifts

UI/UX principles

• dark fintech aesthetic;
• high contrast;
• restrained cyan, teal, amber and rose accents;
• responsive cards;
• consistent spacing;
• no text touching borders;
• local SVG charts;
• no external chart CDN;
• no decorative infographic output;
• no buy/sell arrows;
• no best-sector badges;
• no recommendation colors.

A ready-to-open demo is included at:

examples/sample_dashboard.html

The demo uses synthetic data and is never presented as current market data.

Data Sources

No paid API is mandatory.

Preferred public/free source strategy

1. User-provided CSV/JSON
2. Stooq public historical CSV
3. Yahoo Finance public chart data as fallback when accessible
4. Cboe public VIX history
5. Optional yfinance when installed or permitted

The Agent does not bypass:

• paywalls;
• authentication;
• CAPTCHAs;
• robots restrictions;
• access controls.

Public endpoints can change or fail. The Skill records attempts and falls back
honestly.

Default US Market Proxy Universe

Benchmark

SPY

Sector ETFs

XLB XLC XLE XLF XLI XLK XLP XLRE XLU XLV XLY

Structure proxies

RSP
IWM
MDY
IWF
IWD
SPHB
SPLV
QQQ

Volatility

^VIX / VIX

These are proxies, not a complete market census.

Example Prompts

Current US market regime

Run today's US Market Regime Radar.

Analyze:
- sector rotation
- relative strength
- breadth or clearly labelled breadth proxies
- leadership concentration
- defensive vs cyclical behavior
- volatility regime
- market participation
- large vs small cap context
- growth vs value
- data confidence

Generate the visual Market Regime Dashboard.

Do not provide buy/sell calls, sector or ETF picks, portfolio allocations,
entries, exits, leverage, position sizing or guaranteed outcomes.

Compare with one month ago

Compare the current US market regime with one month ago.

Show:
- sectors gaining leadership
- sectors losing momentum
- breadth improvement or deterioration
- participation changes
- concentration changes
- defensive/cyclical shift
- volatility shift

Generate the dashboard and highlight only meaningful structural changes.

Sector within current regime

Analyze the Technology sector within the current US market regime.

Show:
- relative strength
- momentum change
- rotation quadrant
- multi-horizon excess returns
- leadership persistence
- breadth/participation context when available
- uncertainty

Do not recommend a trade or ETF.

Weekly brief

Create a weekly US market regime brief.

Highlight meaningful changes in:
- leadership
- sector rotation
- breadth
- participation
- concentration
- defensive/cyclical balance
- volatility
- capitalization leadership
- growth/value context

Local Use

1. Collect public/free market data

python scripts/collect_market_data.py \
  --out outputs/market-data.json \
  --days 420

The collector attempts public sources and records all attempts in
collection_audit.

2. Run the analytical engine

python scripts/market_regime_engine.py \
  --input outputs/market-data.json \
  --json-out outputs/market-regime.json \
  --html-out outputs/market-regime-dashboard.html

3. Open the dashboard

Open:

outputs/market-regime-dashboard.html

in a browser.

Structured Outputs

The JSON output includes:

• analysis date;
• market;
• regime label and evidence;
• breadth mode and state;
• sector rotation;
• leadership concentration;
• defensive/cyclical balance;
• volatility;
• participation;
• capitalization context;
• style context;
• risk appetite proxy;
• key shifts;
• data confidence;
• data status;
• source records;
• collection audit;
• financial disclaimer.

Runtime Safety Boundaries

The Skill must refuse:

• buy / sell / hold;
• long / short directions;
• sector or ETF recommendations;
• best sector to buy;
• sector to rotate into;
• overweight / underweight;
• exact portfolio allocation;
• entry / exit;
• stop loss / take profit;
• target price;
• probability of trade success;
• position sizing;
• exact capital amount;
• leverage / margin / notional exposure;
• guaranteed returns.

Semantic equivalents are blocked too, including:

• preferred sector;
• safest sector;
• highest conviction;
• closest thing to a buy;
• strongest trade;
• allocation tilt;
• where should I move my money.

Safe redirect

The Agent can still provide:

• sector rotation;
• relative strength;
• breadth;
• participation;
• concentration;
• volatility;
• regime change;
• uncertainty;
• data quality.

Financial Disclaimer

This Agent does not constitute professional financial advice. Users should
consult a licensed financial advisor before making financial decisions.
Investments can lose value, including the possible loss of the entire
principal.

Portuguese equivalent for localized outputs:

Este Agente não constitui aconselhamento financeiro profissional. Os usuários
devem consultar um consultor financeiro licenciado antes de tomar decisões
financeiras. Investimentos podem perder valor, incluindo a possibilidade de
perda total do capital investido.

Version

1.0.0