DeepDive: Stock Research Pipeline
DeepDive
Institutional-Grade Stock Research, in One Prompt
Most people buy stocks on a vibe. They read a headline, like the product, glance at the P/E, and call it research. Then six months later they're holding a bag wondering what went wrong.
DeepDive is what a hedge fund analyst would do with your ticker before real money went behind it. It tries to prove you wrong first, digs through the filings for what companies hope you skip, and hands you a real number range. It also remembers your past picks, checks old theses against reality, and flags your own repeating mistakes.
⚠️ Informational and educational purposes only. DeepDive does not provide financial or investment advice, and nothing it generates — including investment scores, valuation ranges, reverse-DCF output, scenario/return estimates, or portfolio-fit assessments — is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. It is a research and analysis tool, not a licensed advisor. Independently verify all information and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decision.
What it does
Give DeepDive a ticker. It runs the company through 6 stages of institutional diligence and hands back a structured investment memo — not a chat answer, a deliverable.
| Stage | What it checks |
|---|---|
| 1. Business & Competitive Position | What the company actually sells, industry TAM/growth, and whether its moat holds up under evidence — not marketing |
| 2. Financial Quality | Revenue quality, margins, cash conversion, balance-sheet strength, returns on capital |
| 3. Management & Forensic Scan | Capital allocation track record, insider alignment, and a line-by-line scan of the 10-K/10-Q for accounting red flags |
| 4. Valuation & Embedded Expectations | A real valuation range (DCF + comps) and a reverse DCF — working backward to find out what the price already assumes |
| 5. Scenarios & Stress Test | Bull/base/bear cases, expected return math, permanent-loss risk, a base-rate check, and a pre-mortem |
| 6. Portfolio Fit | Flags correlated or concentrated exposure against the rest of your holdings |
It tries to prove the thesis wrong first. If it survives that, you know it's not just something you wanted to be true.
Personalized to you, not generic to everyone
Most research tools run the same script on every user. DeepDive builds a profile of how you actually invest, and it gets sharper the more you use it.
- A real onboarding interview, once. Before your first ticker, DeepDive asks about your investing style, risk tolerance, time horizon, valuation sensitivity, exclusions, existing holdings, and how much detail you want to see. It saves that profile and never asks again — every future memo is built through your own lens automatically.
- It remembers your track record. Every memo gets logged: the ticker, the score, and the specific falsifiable claims behind the thesis. Re-run a name later and DeepDive opens by checking its own old predictions against what actually happened. Ask "how have my picks done" any time and get an honest hit-rate breakdown, not a highlight reel.
- It catches your own patterns before you repeat them. After enough tickers, DeepDive watches for recurring behavior across your history: chasing the same overvalued theme, drifting from your stated style, or ignoring the same category of red flag more than once. When a real pattern shows up, it says so at the very top of the memo, before the new analysis even starts.
- It handles a whole watchlist, not just one name. Hand it 2 or more tickers and it ranks them against your profile, calls out the weakest link, and maps hidden correlation across the set, like six names that all quietly depend on the same AI-capex cycle even though they sit in different sectors.
This is the part a generic stock-analysis prompt can't copy: it isn't just a smarter report, it's a tool with a memory of you specifically.
Why this is different
- No single point-estimate valuations. Every valuation ships as a range, with a reverse DCF showing exactly what growth, margin, and duration assumptions are baked into the current price.
- Red flags are evidence-based. Every forensic finding cites the specific filing line item — never a vague "this could be a risk."
- Sentiment is context, never the thesis. Analyst ratings and price targets are labeled as such and kept out of the actual investment case.
- One transparent score, not a black box. A 0–100 investment score built from five visible sub-scores — so you see exactly what's driving the number.
- Valuation-aware by design. A wonderful business at a price that already assumes perfection scores lower, on purpose — the score reflects the investment, not just the company.
- Honest about your own blind spots. Behavioral pattern detection only speaks up when there's real evidence across multiple past picks, and it reports unflattering patterns as readily as flattering ones.
Live example: ASML Holding (ASML)
Run on real, current filings and market data — no placeholder numbers.
Investment Score: 52 / 100 — Solid business, priced for perfection
| Pillar | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Business & Moat Quality | 24 / 25 | Genuine, evidenced monopoly — 100% of EUV lithography, 94% of the overall market, no credible competitor within a decade |
| Financial Quality | 19 / 20 | ~53% gross margins, debt-to-FCF under 0.4x, ROIC in the 25–35% range against an ~18% cost of capital |
| Management & Trust | 14 / 15 | Buybacks paired with real share-count reduction, dividend funded from actual profit, no accounting red flags found |
| Valuation & Embedded Expectations | 3 / 25 | ~54x trailing earnings — reverse DCF shows the price already assumes years of uninterrupted high-teens growth |
| Thesis Durability Under Stress | 12 / 15 | Business risk is low; the real risk is a multiple reset on any bookings miss, as already happened in 2024 |
In plain English: this is one of the cleanest business-quality stories DeepDive can produce — a real monopoly, excellent capital allocation, no red flags. But the valuation pillar drags the score down deliberately, because at today's price you're not being paid for that quality. You're paying for certainty and hoping the market keeps agreeing with you.
Snapshot
| Price | ~$1,393 (ADR, Sept 14, 2026) |
| Market cap | ~$610–660B (sources diverge — flagged explicitly rather than silently picked) |
| P/E (TTM) | ~53–55x |
| FY2025 revenue | $35.4B (€32.7B converted @ ~1.08) |
| FY2025 net income | $10.4B (€9.6B converted) |
| Backlog | $41.9B (€38.8B converted — over a year of revenue, largely non-discretionary) |
What the pipeline actually found
The moat is real, not marketing.
ASML holds a genuine monopoly — 100% of EUV lithography, 94% of the lithography market overall. Nikon and Canon abandoned EUV development years ago. No competitor is within a decade of the required combination of light source, optics, and system integration.
The one thing worth watching:
Rising stock-based compensation and retention spending — flagged by analysts as a potential drag on free cash flow if AI-driven demand cools. Not a red flag today, but the kind of line item that quietly erodes shareholder returns if it becomes structural.
What the price already assumes (reverse DCF):
At ~54x trailing earnings against ~16% revenue growth, the market is pricing in several more years of high-teens-to-20%+ earnings growth, sustained ~53% margins, and no meaningful erosion from customer concentration (top 2 customers = 38% of revenue) or China export restrictions (33% → ~20% of sales). This is a valuation where "very good" results can still disappoint the stock.
Pre-mortem — if this is down 50% in two years, why:
Most likely a combination of a major customer delaying AI-driven capex, plus multiple compression from ~54x back toward a more typical quality-industrial range of 25–35x — not a collapse of the underlying monopoly, which shows no signs of erosion on current evidence.
Sample output structure
Every single-ticker run produces the same clean, scannable shape:
1. Behavioral Pattern Flag (only if a real pattern is detected in your history)
2. Investment Score (0-100) + 5 sub-scores + plain-English read
3. Prior Thesis Check (only on a ticker you've had DeepDive research before)
4. Snapshot (price, market cap, date, FX rate if applicable)
5. Business, Industry & Competitive Position
6. Financial Quality
7. Management, Capital Allocation & Red Flags
8. Valuation & Embedded Expectations
9. Scenarios & Thesis Stress Test
10. Portfolio Fit
11. Bottom Line
Give it a watchlist instead of one ticker, and it switches modes: a ranking table across every name, the weakest link called out by name, a correlation and concentration map across the set, and a plain-language read on what to trim, add, or dig into further.
All figures normalized to USD, regardless of the company's reporting currency. Every claim sourced with a citation the user can go verify themselves.
Built for people who are done buying on vibes
DeepDive doesn't tell you a stock is good. It tries to prove you wrong, shows you exactly what you're paying for, and lets you decide with your eyes open.
Disclaimer: DeepDive is a research and analysis tool provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not provide financial or investment advice, and no output — including scores, valuations, or scenario projections — constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance and modeled scenarios are not guarantees of future results. Always independently verify information and consult a qualified, licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
