EquityDesk | 股票研究與財報分析

EquityDesk 把一張股票研究工作台放進一個技能。給它一檔股票、一份觀察清單或一條規則,它會回傳結構化報告,說明每個數字來自哪裡、對應哪一天。涵蓋美股(紐約證交所、那斯達克)與韓股(KOSPI、KOSDAQ),韓國公司以 DART 揭露資料為準。

可以做什麼

• 財報前瞻: 市場共識預期、過往優於與不如預期的紀錄、左右結果的 3 到 5 個關鍵項目、公司財測,以及法說會上值得追問的問題。
• 財報回顧: 實際數字與共識預期、去年同期的比較,從一次性因素、利潤率、現金流檢視獲利品質,財測變化,以及這次財報確認了什麼、還有哪些問題未解。
• 規則篩選: 支援 CANSLIM 風格、股息、動能與價值/品質篩選。你會看到所用規則、每一步過濾後剩下的檔數,以及附上個股風險提醒的簡短排名。
• 持股檢視: 貼上你的持股,即可得到依個股、產業、國家與幣別劃分的權重、集中度與重疊情況,並附計算公式。
• 回測方案設計: 把一句白話規則變成可檢驗的方案(標的範圍、進場、出場、成本、基準),並檢查前視偏誤與倖存者偏誤。若有程式與資料可用,會實際執行回測。
• 市場簡報: 附日期的日報或週報,涵蓋指數、產業、利率、美元/韓元等匯率,以及已確認的重要行程。
• 個股備忘: 商業模式、利潤率、資產負債表、載明假設的估值,以及樂觀、基準、悲觀三種情境。
• 附市場檢查的趨勢模板與 CANSLIM 篩選: 先確認指數趨勢,再用公開的 CANSLIM 權重與七項價格條件為候選股評分,並標明回看區間與哪些條件未能評估。
• 部位大小計算: 依你提供的數字計算股數、風險金額與集中度上限,並列顯示多個風險水準。絕不替你選擇風險水準。
• 投資論點追蹤與催化劑行事曆: 含正反證據的論點、你自己設定的失效條件,以及附日期的已確認事件。
• 股息收入規劃: 依你貼上的持股產生配息行事曆、預期殖利率、成本殖利率、相對自由現金流的配息比率、減配風險訊號,並列比較再投資情境。稅務規則只列為需要確認的事項,不替你計算。
• 交易日誌與績效回顧: 依你自己的交易紀錄計算 R 倍數、附信賴區間的勝率、賺賠比、獲利因子、期望值、最大回撤與連虧次數;樣本太少時會明確提醒。
• ETF 比較與重疊分析: 比較美股與韓股上市 ETF 的費用率、持股重疊、你直接持有的個股在 ETF 中的穿透權重、集中度、折溢價與追蹤誤差。
• 公告與內部人交易摘要: 整理觀察清單的 SEC 文件(8-K、10-Q、Form 4、13D/13G、13F)與 DART 公告(重大事項報告、董監事及主要股東持股報告、大量持股報告、庫藏股、增資),區分例行事項與值得留意的事項,不揣測動機。

需要提供什麼

• 股票代號、6 位數 KRX 代碼,或股票清單
• 任務類型:前瞻、回顧、篩選、持股檢視、回測方案、市場簡報或個股備忘
• 選填:投資期間、風格(成長、價值、股息)、顯示幣別,以及想使用的規則或門檻
• 選填:貼上的公告、法說會逐字稿、價格資料或你的持股清單

會得到什麼

• 開頭標明資料模式:即時資料、僅限你提供的資料,或僅提供方法框架。
• 區分事實與解讀的摘要
• 附有基準日、會計期間、幣別與單位的表格
• 證據清單:每項重要結論的來源、日期與查證狀態
• 未能確認的內容、查詢失敗的部分,以及接下來要核對的事項

請求範例

• 「幫我做 NVDA 下次財報的前瞻:共識預期、過往超預期情況、關鍵變數與財測。」
• 「把三星電子第三季初步業績與共識預期對照整理,以合併報表為準。」
• 「在標普 500 中篩選配息率低於 60%、連續 5 年增加股息的公司,並顯示每步過濾後剩下的檔數。」
• 「這是我的 8 檔持股與權重,看看我在產業和幣別上集中在哪裡。」

建立在廣受認可的方法之上

撰寫 v1.1 之前,我閱讀了最知名的開源交易與金融技能的公開文件,只保留適合美股與韓股研究的方法。EquityDesk 借鏡的是方法而非程式碼,與這些專案沒有關聯,也未獲其背書。它新增了對韓國市場的處理(DART、KRX、以 KOSPI 為基準),以及更嚴格的規則:每個數字都要有來源與日期。

• tradermonty/claude-trading-skills: 先看風險的流程、選股前先檢查市場狀態、決策前清單、部位大小計算。
• himself65/finance-skills: 財報前瞻與回顧的結構,使用 DCF、可比公司倍數與敏感度表的估值。
• anthropics/financial-services: 為人工覆核準備的分析師成果、投資論點追蹤、催化劑行事曆。
• wshobson/agents (backtesting-frameworks): 前視偏誤與倖存者偏誤檢查、樣本外與滾動前進測試。

真實請求與實際輸出

以下三個範例於 2026 年 11 月 4 日在可即時連網的環境中,依本技能 v1.1 的指令執行而得。它們由另一個模型在另一個環境中執行,並非 Capafy 上驅動本技能的模型,因此實際使用時用詞、深度與資料存取範圍可能不同。範例 1 的數字來自所列頁面與 Yahoo Finance 日線收盤價,範例 2 使用作為範例挑選的股票的 Yahoo Finance 日線收盤價,範例 3 使用虛構數字。範例 2 因請求為韓文而以韓文顯示。

範例 1:含股價反應的財報回顧,蘋果 2026 會計年度第四季

請求

Recap Apple's fiscal Q4 2026 report: results against consensus, the stock's reaction, and what guidance said.

回覆

Data mode: A, live data. Checked 2026-11-04. US dollars. Apple reported after the close on Monday 2026-11-02, so the reaction session is Tuesday 2026-11-03.

Summary

• EPS $2.10 against $1.99 expected (LSEG): a $0.11 beat, 5.5%. Revenue $114.48 billion against $113.39 billion: 1.0% above, and up 11.7% from $102.46 billion a year earlier.
• Part of the EPS beat came from tariff refunds. Apple says they added $0.05 to EPS and about 1 point to gross margin. Without the refund, EPS would be about $2.05, still above $1.99, but it is unclear whether analysts had included the refund in their numbers. Unverified
• The December-quarter guide is the soft spot. Revenue growth guided to 7 to 10% (analyst average 6.1%), but gross margin guided to 45 to 46% against an average estimate of 46.3%.
• Regular-session reaction was -1.9% (close 338.32 to 331.90). That is smaller than the average absolute move of the previous four reports, 2.9%.

Line item	Actual	Expected (LSEG)	Difference
EPS	$2.10	$1.99	+5.5%
Revenue	$114.48B	$113.39B	+1.0%
iPhone	$57.58B	$56.54B	+1.8%
Mac	$10.79B	$9.61B	+12.3%
iPad	$6.23B	$6.70B	-7.0%
Wearables, Home and Accessories	$8.30B	$9.06B	-8.4%
Gross margin	47.9%	47.5%	+0.4 pt (about -0.6 pt without the refund)

Beat quality. The beat is real on the headline, but it leans on iPhone and Mac (Mac +24% year over year). Two segments missed, and the margin beat depends on the refund. Services came in about $31.6 billion, in line with expectations. One outlet's table labels this line "Other Products", while others label it Services; I treated it as Services, not verified against the 10-K.

Contradictory China data. Greater China revenue was $17.54 billion. CNBC reports growth of 21% year over year, while Yahoo Finance and StreetInsider show it below estimates of $18.58 to $18.75 billion (Visible Alpha, Bloomberg). Both can be true: strong growth, but below what analysts expected. The two estimates differ by provider, so I show both instead of averaging.

Reaction, measured the same way each time (report-day close to next close, after-close reports):

Report	Reaction
2025-10-30	-0.38%
2026-01-29	+0.46%
2026-04-30	+3.24%
2026-07-30	-7.35%
2026-11-02	-1.90%

Average absolute move of the first four: (0.38 + 0.46 + 3.24 + 7.35) ÷ 4 = 2.86%. After-hours figures vary by outlet (CNBC wrote about -3% in extended trading) and I did not verify them. A single day's move has many causes, including the broader market.

Open questions. How much of the December-quarter margin guide is memory costs versus mix (management cited higher memory costs)? Whether analysts' margin consensus included tariff refunds. The next confirmed date is the dividend: $0.27 per share, record date 2026-11-12, payable 2026-11-16.

Sources (opened): Apple newsroom, "Apple reports fourth quarter results", 2026-11-02: https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/11/apple-reports-fourth-quarter-results/ . CNBC live coverage, 2026-11-02 (LSEG estimates, guidance): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/02/apple-aapl-q4-2026-earnings-live-updates.html . Yahoo Finance daily chart data for AAPL (closes): https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/AAPL . Seen only as search-result excerpts, not opened in full: Yahoo Finance and StreetInsider earnings articles (China estimates, Services line), Apple newsroom pages for the January, April and July 2026 reports (dates), and an SEC-filing listing for 2025-10-30.

Information and analysis only, not investment advice.

範例 2:八檔股票(美國與韓國)的趨勢模板檢查

請求

내가 보는 8종목(AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, 삼성전자, SK하이닉스, KO, JNJ, XOM)을 추세 템플릿 기준으로 점검해 줘. 가격은 오늘 기준으로.

回覆

데이터 모드: A, 실시간 확인. 야후 파이낸스 일봉 종가 2년치를 2026-11-04에 조회했습니다. 미국 종목은 11월 3일 종가, 한국 종목은 11월 4일 최신 값입니다. 52주 고점·저점은 일일 종가 기준입니다.

요약

• 가격 기준 7개 조건을 모두 충족한 종목: MSFT, KO, JNJ, XOM.
• AAPL은 6/7입니다. 현재가 331.90달러가 50일선 334.05달러보다 0.6% 낮아 "50일선 위" 조건만 빠졌습니다.
• NVDA는 4/7입니다. 현재가 206.69달러가 150일선(211.81)보다 낮고 50일선(221.46)도 밑돌며, 52주 저점보다 25.1% 위라 "30% 이상 위" 조건도 못 채웠습니다.
• 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스는 3/7입니다. 두 종목 모두 현재가가 50·150·200일선 아래이고, 52주 고점 대비 각각 -39.9%, -52.2%입니다.

종목	현재가	50일	150일	200일	52주 고점 대비	52주 저점 대비	충족
AAPL	331.90	334.05	309.78	297.34	-4.9%	+34.6%	6/7
MSFT	520.99	514.06	449.07	438.48	-4.1%	+47.7%	7/7
NVDA	206.69	221.46	211.81	204.56	-13.6%	+25.1%	4/7
삼성전자	218,000원	249,680	260,127	238,564	-39.9%	+130.0%	3/7
SK하이닉스	1,396,000원	1,611,120	1,709,313	1,503,165	-52.2%	+173.7%	3/7
KO	94.80	89.62	84.21	82.38	-1.1%	+40.4%	7/7
JNJ	266.17	265.47	250.68	247.48	-4.4%	+43.1%	7/7
XOM	177.46	168.32	156.61	155.09	-5.2%	+56.1%	7/7

평가한 7개 조건: ①현재가가 150일·200일선 위 ②150일선이 200일선 위 ③200일선이 최근 1개월(22거래일) 동안 상승 ④50일선이 150일·200일선 위 ⑤현재가가 50일선 위 ⑥52주 저점보다 30% 이상 위 ⑦52주 고점의 25% 이내.

평가하지 못한 조건. 여덟 번째 조건인 상대강도 순위(70 이상)는 비교할 전체 종목군이 없어서 계산하지 않았습니다. 대신 가중 상대수익률(0.4×3개월 + 0.3×6개월 + 0.3×12개월, 벤치마크는 미국 종목 S&P 500, 한국 종목 코스피)을 참고용으로 적습니다: AAPL +10.9%p, MSFT +7.3%p, NVDA -3.8%p, 삼성전자 +26.0%p, SK하이닉스 +47.8%p, KO +17.5%p, JNJ +15.3%p, XOM +24.1%p.

해석할 때 볼 점. 삼성전자는 공시된 3분기 실적이 사상 최대인데도 가격 추세 조건은 약합니다. 12개월 수익률은 +125.9%로 높지만 3개월은 -17.0%입니다. 이 차이의 원인은 이번 조회로는 확인하지 못했습니다. 미확인 통화(달러, 원)가 섞여 있어 가격끼리 비교하지 않았고, 이동평균은 종가 기준이며 배당·분할 조정 방식은 데이터 제공처 기준입니다. 거래량은 반영하지 않았습니다.

출처: 야후 파이낸스 차트 데이터(조회함) https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ (각 티커 및 ^GSPC, ^KS11).

가격 추세를 점검한 결과이며 매수·매도 신호가 아닙니다. 정보와 분석 제공용이며 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

範例 3:用你自己的數字計算部位大小(虛構輸入)

請求

Account $50,000. Entry $100, stop $92. Max position 10% of the account. How many shares at 0.5%, 1% and 1.5% risk?

回覆

Data mode: B, your numbers only. No prices were opened.

Risk per share = 100 − 92 = $8. Position cap = 10% × 50,000 = $5,000, which is 50 shares at $100.

Risk level	Risk dollars	Shares by risk	Position value	Cap applies?	Final shares	Dollar risk at the stop
0.5%	$250	floor(250 ÷ 8) = 31	$3,100 (6.2%)	no	31	$248 (0.50%)
1.0%	$500	floor(500 ÷ 8) = 62	$6,200 (12.4%)	yes	50	$400 (0.80%)
1.5%	$750	floor(750 ÷ 8) = 93	$9,300 (18.6%)	yes	50	$400 (0.80%)

What this shows. At 1% and 1.5% the position cap, not the risk level, sets the size, so both end at 50 shares and 0.8% account risk. Only the 0.5% case is limited by risk. I am not choosing a risk level for you.

Not in the numbers. A stop order is not a guaranteed fill price, so a gap can lose more than $8 a share. Commissions, spreads and slippage are excluded. If other positions carry open risk, add them up: common reference limits in public guides are 6 to 8% of equity across the portfolio, as a reference and not a rule.

Information and analysis only, not investment advice.

範例 4:依你自己的交易紀錄做交易日誌回顧(虛構交易)

請求

Here is my trade log in R-multiples, oldest first: +2.1, -1, +0.8, -1, +3.2, -0.5, -1, +1.5, -1, +0.6. Review it.

回覆

Data mode: B, your log only. Nothing was looked up.

Measure	Value	How it is computed
Trades	10
Wins / losses	5 / 5
Win rate	50% (Wilson 95% range about 24% to 76%)	5 ÷ 10
Total result	+3.7R	8.2 − 4.5
Average win / average loss	+1.64R / −0.90R	8.2 ÷ 5, −4.5 ÷ 5
Payoff ratio	1.82	1.64 ÷ 0.90
Profit factor	1.82	8.2 ÷ 4.5
Expectancy per trade	+0.37R	0.5 × 1.64 + 0.5 × (−0.90)
Maximum drawdown	1.5R	peak 4.1R after trade 5, low 2.6R after trade 7
Longest losing streak	2	trades 6 and 7

What the numbers show. Winners were larger than losers on average, and no loss exceeded 1R. The cumulative curve recovered its 4.1R peak at trade 8.

What they cannot show. Ten trades are far too few. The win rate could plausibly be anywhere from about 24% to 76%, so the +0.37R expectancy is descriptive only and I will not project future returns from it.

Three questions for your journal. Which setups produced the three biggest winners? Were the 1R losses stopped at the planned level, or did any run through it? What happened after the two-loss streak?

Information and analysis only, not investment advice.

為了能被查證而設計

• 不捏造數字。在來源中找不到的數值不會憑記憶補上,而是標為 未查證。
• 優先採用一手資料:美股看 SEC EDGAR 文件與公司投資人關係頁面,韓股看 DART 與韓國交易所資料。
• GAAP 或 IFRS 數字與調整後數字分開標示,韓國公司會註明合併或個體口徑。
• 不下單、不連接券商帳戶,也不會說「買進」或「賣出」。輸出內容是資訊與分析,不構成投資建議。
• 網頁或貼上文件中夾帶的指令一律忽略。

購買前需要了解的限制

• 即時資料取決於執行環境是否能連網。無法連網時,EquityDesk 只分析你貼上的資料,並在資料模式中說明。
• 它不是即時或盤中交易訊號工具。每次執行都是附時間戳記的快照。
• 篩選與回測的準確度取決於能取得的資料。沒有完整資料時,它不會捏造名單,而是提供可在其他工具執行的篩選規則。
• 過往績效不代表未來表現。稅務、法律與個人理財規劃不在範圍內。

常見問題

支援韓國股票嗎?
支援。可處理 KOSPI 與 KOSDAQ 股票,在可連線時使用 DART 揭露與韓國交易所資料,可用中文、韓文或英文回答。

它會告訴我該買什麼嗎?
不會。它呈現證據支持的內容、風險,以及哪些因素會改變判斷。決定由你自己做。

能替我交易嗎?
不能。它沒有券商連線功能,也不會下單。

怎麼確認數字是真的?
每項重要結論都標有來源、日期與狀態。未能確認的內容會標為 未查證。

僅提供資訊與分析,不構成投資建議。